How Do We Do This?
The latest version of lockdown in Italy requires that no one leave their home except to go to work, to the doctor, to the pharmacy, to the market for food, or to get back to their primary residence if they were away when the lockdown directives were declared. Oh and you can go out to walk your dog and you can get to family/friends who are in need of assistance and to buy cigarettes. If you are out and get stopped by the police making patrols, you have to show a certificate that you filled out before leaving home that says who you are, where you live, and where you are going, why you are out. They will call your work or your doctor - investigate what they can to make sure you aren’t lying. If you aren’t out for a valid reason you get fined up to €206 (around $220) and risk a 3 month jail sentence. If they can determine you’ve lied, another fine and more jail time. Cycling (for exercise, not as a mode of transportation) is basically prohibited, mostly because if you fall and need a doctor? They are otherwise occupied and don’t need you asking for medical help now. Running apparently is still permissible if you run alone and keep your distance from others but it is frowned upon because, well, you are not honoring the rest of us who are sacrificing, staying put at home. And actually… we don’t really know yet if an asymptomatic person with coronavirus might cast out the contagion into the air where it possibly could live for some time, hanging out waiting for some unsuspecting person to come by later thinking it’s safe to do so cuz no one is there. So runners best run where no one can see them to avoid the death stare.
These are the rules because research shows that of the three strategies available to confront this situation,
1) Do nothing, treat it like any other flu, let the virus take its course
2) Mitigation, putting all symptomatic cases in isolation to try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals (flatten the curve….)
3) Suppression, which is mitigation plus social distancing for the whole population, meaning JUST STAY HOME
only the third option is seen to work. That’s what Singapore did, what China did, what South Korea did. They already had experience with SARS in 2003 so knew the drill once they truly recognized what was coming down the pike. Trying out the other two options, like some countries are dabbling with now? That’s the making of a shit show, if you ask me. You can look at the numbers and more specifics regarding the United States modeling for the contagion by searching for Imperial College study as seen by Jeremy C Young.
Many of you have been seeing me here trying to raise awareness, creating as much ruckus as I can to get people’s attention. I do this because here in my adopted homeland, I worry about my native homeland and want to protect whoever I can by serving up information that can help people avoid the drastic circumstances that Italy is facing. I’ve never lived in a war zone, but it is starting to feel like that here. Rosie the Riveter of WWII is now Maria the Seamstress who is home, sewing masks for the hospitals. Rosie, however, didn’t have to worry that the enemy might be lurking right outside her door.
I know there are still many saying this is a hoax, it’s just a flu, a conspiracy, it’ll pass. I don’t profess to know everything. But I do know what I’m seeing here. I really hope the “just a flu”-ers are right. But I also believe in hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. This isn’t fear mongering. It’s just about getting information out there so people can better understand.
California is asking all residents to Shelter In Place. But the decree stipulates that it is still OK to go out with kids, exercise etc as long as safe distances are maintained. We tried that here. Did.Not.Work. It’s the asymptomatic people who unwittingly carry the virus that keep the contagion numbers rising. The more they are out and about - the more the numbers will rise.
To keep those numbers down, to reduce the impact on what will be a strained health system, the number of cases, the number of deaths - the only solution is to Stay Home. That’s it. I think you must be bored of me saying this by now.